Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
